Midterm Elections: Know the Chances of Indian-American CandidatesNovember 03, 2018 05:00
(Image source from: rand.org)
With the midterm elections less than four days away, all four Indian-American members of Congress are sure stake to get re-elected, according to numerous polls and forecasters.
Representative Ami Bera, the dean of the Indian-American congressional delegation, who hardly worn through in the past three elections, has a 99 percent chance of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, a popular polling aggregation website.
In addition to these four, more than half-a-dozen Indian-Americans are running for Congress. They comprise Hiral Tipirneni in Arizona’s 8th Congressional district, Anita Malik (Arizona 6th), Aftab Pureval (Ohio 1st), Sri Kulkarni (Texas 22nd), Chintan Desai (Arkansas 1st) and Sanjay Patel (Florida 8th).
Related content: Mid-term Elections: What Indian-American Community has at Stake
Here are the probabilities for these candidates, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
REP. PRAMILA JAYAPAL
District: Washington State 7th
Main opponent: Craig Keller (Republican)
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Jayapal’s win is a near certainty (99.9 percent). The district is the 20th-most-Democratic seat in the country.
REP. AMI BERA
District: California 7th
Main opponent: Andrew Grant (Republican)
FiveThirtyEight.com says Bera has a 99.4 percent chance of winning as of Friday. Bera won his previous election against Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones barely. Two years earlier, he won the district by a slightly more than 1,400 votes. In 2012, when he initially got elected to the House, the victory margin against Republican Dan Lungren was 2 percent.
REP. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI
District: Illinois 8th
Main opponent: Jitendra “JD” Diganvker
FiveThirtyEight.com gives 99.9 percent chance to Krishnamoorthi for retaining the seat against fellow Indian-American Diganvker. The district is profoundly Democratic - 135th-most-Democratic orientated than the country as a whole.
REP. RO KHANNA
District: California 17th
Main opponent: Ron Cohen (Republican)
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Khanna has a 99.9 percent chance of winning the Silicon Valley district. The seat is overwhelmingly Democratic - 47 points more Democratic than the country as a whole.
District: Arizona 6th
Main opponent: Rep. David Schweikert (Republican)
FiveThirtyEight.com gives Malik only a 9.2 percent chance of winning against the incumbent. The district is the 152nd-most-Republican seat in the country, according to the website.
District: Arizona 8th
Main opponent: Rep. Debbie Lesko (Republican)
FiveThirtyEight.com gives Tipirneni 22.4 percent - or 2 in 9 - chance of winning against incumbent Lesko, who had overcome her in a special election last year. Tipirneni has outraised Lesko by a huge margin (nearly $4 million vs a little over half a million.)
District: Ohio 1st
Main opponent: Rep. Steve Chabot (Republican)
FiveThirtyEight.com gives Pureval 16.5 percent chance of gaining the seat from Chabot. The district is regarded as the 201st-most-Republican-leaning seat. Pureval has a huge money advantage over the incumbent has raised more than $3 million.
SRI PRESTON KULKARNI
District: Texas 22nd
Main opponent: Rep. Pete Olson (Republican)
According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Kulkarni has 19.5 percent chance of unseating the incumbent. The district is heavily Republican - 132nd-most-Republican in the country.
District: Arkansas 1st
Main opponent: Rick Crawford (Republican)
FiveThirtyEight.com gives only 0.1 percent chance to Desai, a first-time contender, against the incumbent. The district is 30 percent more Republican than the country as a whole.
District: Florida 8th
Main opponent: Bill Posey (R)
FiveThirtyEight.com gives only 0.7 percent chance for winning in a district that is 23.5 points more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole. Posey had won the last election by virtually 31 percent.
JITENDRA “JD’ DIGANVKER
District: Illinois 8th
Main opponent: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi
FiveThirtyEight.com gives Diganvker only 0.1 percent chance of winning against fellow Indian-American Krishnamoorthi.